|
"Red sky in morning, sailors take warning"
|
From the vantage point of the observer, the red sky occurs before the storm, and, in fact, can be used to predict it. Does the red sky, therefore, cause the storm, or does the storm (which comes later) cause the red sky? This is not really a difficult question to answer, but it does nicely demonstrate some of the pitfalls to be aware of. This is especially true when observing cause-and-effect in phenomena that are closer to the limits of our current understanding. In short, there is more to observing cause-and-effect than apparent sequential precedence.
The Pharisees to whom Jesus spoke about this (
Mathew 16:1-3) clearly knew of it as a rule of thumb, or common knowledge. Did they, as individuals, discern the true causal direction back in Jesus' day? Perhaps, but there was likely a time in our knowledge of this, that we did not know. In other words, there may have been a time when we only knew that there was a correlation, and that the red sky came first. In those times, all but the deepest thinkers probably thought of the red sky as causing the storm which came after it; even if only tacitly, because they never really gave it much thought.
Obviously, in this day of radars, and satellite-pictures, our observational vantage-point has expanded well beyond this particular problem. It is probably true, however, that many newer observed correlations, as well as many observations throughout history have a similar local-sequential characteristic early-on. One can certainly understand, for example, how it would have been easy to conclude that the heavens revolved around the earth. This tendency, which may include correlation with no, or wrong, causal direction, probably continues to occur in many present-day, cutting-edge observations.